Forecasts, macro data, transition indicators

Listed below are the EBRD's growth forecasts, transition indicators and various structural reform indicators.

Economic Forecasts (Regional Economic Prospects)

EBRD publishes growth forecasts for its countries of operation twice a year as part of Regional Economic Prospects

Regional Economic Prospects

2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
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Assessment of Transition Qualities (2017-present)

Following the revision of the transition concept in 2016, the EBRD has developed a new approach to tracking progress in transition. The new methodology assesses developments along six qualities of a sustainable market economy: competitive, well-governed, green, inclusive, resilient and integrated.

Progress in each of these qualities is captured by the set of composite indices (referred to as “assessments of transition qualities” or “ATQs”), which combine information from a large number of indicators and assessments in a consistent manner. The resulting ATQ scores measure each economy’s performance against that of comparator advanced economies as well as other economies in the EBRD regions. Scores range from 1 to 10, where 10 represents a synthetic frontier corresponding to the standards of a sustainable market economy.

The latest available scores can be found in the file below.

Assessment of transition qualities 2018

Please find more detailed information on the methodology behind the transition indicators behind the link.

Transition indicators (1989-2014)

The EBRD assessed progress in transition through a set of transition indicators. These were used to track reform developments in all countries of operations in 1989-2014. Progress is measured against the standards of industrialised market economies, while recognising that there is neither a “pure” market economy nor a unique end-point for transition.

The measurement scale for the indicators ranges from 1 to 4+, where 1 represents little or no change from a rigid centrally planned economy and 4+ represents the standards of an industrialised market economy. The reform scores reflect the assessments of EBRD country economists using the criteria described in the methodological notes.

Assessments are made in six areas:

  1. Large scale privatisation
  2. Small scale privatisation
  3. Governance and enterprise restructuring
  4. Price liberalisation
  5. Trade and foreign exchange system
  6. Competition policy

Please find more detailed information on the methodology behind the transition indicators behind the link.

Sector transition scores (2010-16)

In 2010-2016, the EBRD published assessments of progress in transition across a number of sectors. The transition indicators range from 1 to 4+, with 1 representing little or no change relative to a centrally planned economy and 4+ representing the standards of an industrialised market economy. For a detailed breakdown of each of the areas of reform and sectoral scores, see the methodological notes in the online version of Transition Reports for respective years (tr-ebrd.com).

Structural change indicators (until 2010)

These indicators provide a quantitative foundation for analysing progress in transition in the following five sectors: enterprises, markets and trade, the financial sector and infrastructure. In addition, the data file contains EBRD's transition indicators for these sectors. It covers data until 2010.

The file contains the following data series:

Enterprises: Privatisation revenues (% GDP), private sector size (% GDP, % employment), budgetary subsidies and current transfers (% GDP), industry size (% employment), labour productivity in industry (% change), investment (% GDP)

Markets and trade: Share of administered prices in CPI (%), number of goods with administered prices in EBRD-15 basket, share of trade with non-transition countries (%) , share of trade in GDP, tariff revenues (% imports)

Financial sector: Number of foreign-owned banks, asset share of state-owned banks (%), asset share of foreign-owned banks (%), non-performing loans (% total loans), domestic credit to private sector (% GDP), domestic credit to households (% GDP), mortgage lending (% GDP), stock market capitalisation (% GDP), stock trading volume (% market capitalisation), eurobond issuance (% GDP)

Infrastructure: Fixed-line (mobile) penetration rate (per 100 inhabitants), internet users (per 100 inhabitants), railway labour productivity (1989=100), residential electricity tariffs (USc kWh), average collection rate, electricity (%), GDP per unit of energy use (PPP in US dollars per kgoe)

EBRD transition indicators: small-scale privatisation, large-scale privatisation, enterprise reform, price liberalisation, forex and trade liberalisation, competition policy, banking sector, non-bank financial institutions, infrastructure (electric power, railways, roads, telecommunications, water and waste water)

Learn more about the methodology behind these data series. Share of foreign owned banks