Office of the Chief Economist

Our economics work

The Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) helps promote deeper understanding of the economic and policy challenges facing the EBRD regions. It produces cutting-edge analysis and insights, focusing on emerging trends and the long-term structural transformation of the countries where the Bank invests.

OCE achieves this through peer-reviewed economic research, macroeconomic forecasts, cross-country surveys and the EBRD’s annual flagship publication, the Transition Report. On a selective basis, it also conducts rigorous assessments to measure the economic impact of key EBRD projects and operations, summarising the main findings in EBRD Impact Briefs.

The team's peer-reviewed research is published in the Bank's Working Paper series and in leading economic journals. In addition, the EBRD publishes occasional special reports on topics ranging from the green economy to food security to the middle-income trap.

EBRD researchers also provide operational support for the Bank through macroeconomic nowcasting and forecasting. Twice or three times a year, the Regional Economic Prospects report reviews the latest economic developments in the EBRD regions, summarising economic growth forecasts.

OCE runs regular large-scale surveys of households, enterprises and banks to support its research and help fulfil the Bank's operational aims. These surveys provide unique insights into economic behaviour, business conditions and financial access across the EBRD regions.

Our team

Beata Javorcik

Chief Economist

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Ralph De Haas

Director of Research

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Alexander Plekhanov

Director for Transition Impact and Global Economics

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Peter Sanfey

Deputy Director of Country Strategy and Policy

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Helena Schweiger

Associate Director, Lead Research Economist

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Cevat Giray Aksoy

Associate Director, Senior Research Economist

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J. Michelle Brock

Associate Director, Senior Research Economist

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Zsoka Koczan

Associate Director, Lead Economist, Transition Impact and Global Economics

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Victoria Marino

Principal Economist

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Francesco Loiacono

Principal Research Economist

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Maxim Chupilkin

Associate Economist

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Tim Deisemann

Associate Economist

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Pablo García Guzmán

Associate Economist

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Oleg Konovalov

Analyst

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Ksenia Yakustidi

Media Adviser

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Contact us

Research-related enquiries

Email:

economics@ebrd.com

Media enquiries - Ksenia Yakustidi, Media Adviser, Office of the Chief Economist

Email:

yakustik@ebrd.com

The EBRD publishes its annual Transition Report in November. The publication reviews economic and structural-reform developments in the region, focusing on a particular topic.

Transition Report 2024-25

Navigating industrial policy

The EBRD undertakes surveys in a number of areas related to its operational activities and in which the findings are critical for the Bank's understanding of economic transition. Most of these projects are funded in part by external donors and implemented in partnership with other institutions. The EBRD is committed to making survey data available publicly, subject to confidentiality concerns and agreement with our partners.

Published two to three times a year (typically in February, May and September), the Regional Economic Prospects review the latest economic developments in the EBRD regions and present the outlook for these economies.

Uncertain times

Sharp increases in trade and economic policy uncertainty, weaker external demand and the direct and indirect effects of the announced increases in import tariffs weigh on the outlook.

Regional Economic Prospects reports from 2023

May

Getting by: High inflation weighs on purchasing power of households

As energy prices have moderated, inflation started coming down. However, repeated crises—reflected in two recessions in quick succession—have weighed on the financial situation of households.

February

Not out of the woods yet

Growth surprised on the upside, but continued high gas prices weigh on the outlook and disinflation may be slower than expected.

Full report

PDF format / 1.72 MB

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Slides

PDF format / 1.01 MB

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Regional Economic Prospects reports from 2022

September

A cold winter ahead? Confronting the energy crunch

Higher gas prices continue to push up inflation and gas import bills. Higher costs in gas-intensive sectors and spillovers from advanced Europe also weigh on growth.

Full report

PDF format / 1.88 MB

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Slides

PDF format / 0.54 MB

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May

The return of runaway prices: Dealing with expensive food and energy

Increases in food and energy prices added to inflationary pressures, which were already high before the war on Ukraine. Some economies are further affected through trade, tourism and remittance links and a reassessment of geopolitical risks.

Full report

PDF format / 1.42 MB

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Slides

PDF format / 0.94 MB

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March update

In the shadow of the war: The economic fallout from the war on Ukraine

Growth is expected to decelerate as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been having a profound impact on the economies in the EBRD regions as well as globally.

Full report

PDF format / 1.21 MB

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Regional Economic Prospects reports from 2021

November

Bittersweet recovery

In 2021 a recovery has been gathering pace. However, while there are encouraging developments, some vulnerabilities have also increased.

Full report

PDF format / 1.82 MB

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Slides

PDF format / 1.82 MB

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June

Recovery gathering pace

Industrial production and retail sales have largely recovered and demand for manufacturing exports has been strong. However, foreign investments are far below their pre-crisis levels and the outlook for international tourism remains highly uncertain.

Full report

PDF format / 2.11 MB

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Slides

PDF format / 1.05 MB

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Regional Economic Prospects reports from 2020

September

Covid-19 Early estimates of the damage, uncertain prospects

Output contracted sharply as the effects of social distancing measures aimed at containing the spread of Covid-19 were compounded by weaker demand for exports, a collapse in tourism, a drop in remittances and low commodity prices.

Full report

PDF format / 1.70 MB

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Slides

PDF format / 1.84 MB

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May update

Covid-19 From shock to recovery

The coronavirus pandemic hit on top of the ongoing slowdown in growth and is expected to result in a substantial output contraction, at least in the near term.

Full report

PDF format / 1.22 MB

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Slides

PDF format / 2.09 MB

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April

Covid-19 From shock to recovery

The coronavirus pandemic weighs on growth as the economic impact of domestic containment measures is compounded by external shocks: lower commodity prices, disruptions to value chains and a collapse in tourism.

Full report

PDF format / 2.17 MB

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Slides

PDF format / 2.05 MB

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Regional Economic Prospects reports from 2019

November

Stalling engines of growth

Growth in the EBRD regions decelerated, in line with the slowdown in global industrial production, led by a contraction in the automotive sector, weighing in particular on emerging Europe.

Full report

PDF format / 1.98 MB

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May

Facing global slowdown: More exposed, better prepared?

Growth and export growth weakened in the EBRD regions, mirroring the global trade slowdown, and despite easing financing conditions.

Full report

PDF format / 1.24 MB

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Regional Economic Prospects reports from 2018

November

In the shadow of trade conflicts

Escalating trade conflicts represent a risk to the EBRD regions, which has become more dependent on global economic conditions, though strong macroeconomic frameworks and fiscal space could facilitate appropriate policy responses.

Full report

PDF format / 0.99 MB

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May

Has growth peaked?

Following two years of sustained and broad-based growth accelerations, growth in the EBRD regions is expected to moderate, reflecting weak productivity growth and adverse demographic trends.

Full report

PDF format / 1.99 MB

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Regional Economic Prospects reports from 2017

November

Accelerating in sync

The EBRD regions have experienced an unusually broad-based acceleration of growth, with contributions from higher exports and stronger investment activity.

Full report

PDF format / 1.12 MB

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May

Growth picking up despite political uncertainty

The outlook for growth in the EBRD region is broadly stable despite a global environment characterized by increased political uncertainty, but supported by higher oil prices.

Full report

PDF format / 0.93 MB

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Regional Economic Prospects reports from 2016

November

Return to modest growth

The outlook for the EBRD regions has improved at the margin, reflecting a partial recovery of capital flows into emerging markets and modest recovery of oil prices.

Full report

PDF format / 0.92 MB

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May

Modest pick-up amid continued uncertainty

After five years of continued deceleration, growth is expected to pick up only modestly reflecting increased volatility in global financial markets, lower capital flows to emerging markets and weak global trade.

Full report

PDF format / 0.91 MB

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Regional Economic Prospects reports from 2015

November

Economic outlook split by conflicting forces

The outlook for the EBRD regions has remained broadly unchanged, but masks different sub-regional trends, reflecting expectations of monetary policy tightening in the US versus quantitative easing in the Eurozone, and a further drop in commodity prices.

Full report

PDF format / 0.68 MB

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May

In the cross-currents of diverging monetary policies and Russia's recession

The broadly-unchanged outlook for the EBRD regions hides diverging sub-regional trends and larger-than expected negative spillovers from the deep recession in Russia.

Full report

PDF format / 0.71 MB

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January

Oil-driven Russia downturn adds to weakness in EBRD economies

Growth in the EBRD regions is expected to weaken materially as low commodity prices weigh on commodity exporters, though with major differentiation among sub-regions.

Full report

PDF format / 0.59 MB

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Regional Economic Prospects reports from 2014

September

In the heavy shadow of the Ukraine/Russia crisis

The growth outlook for the EBRD regions has weakened further reflecting intensification of the Ukraine/Russia crisis, new rounds of economic sanctions on Russia and a still-fragile recovery in the Eurozone.

Full report

PDF format / 0.37 MB

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May

The Ukraine/Russia crisis weighs on transition region's growth

The growth outlook for the EBRD regions has deteriorated as a more positive outlook for the Eurozone is more than offset by increased geopolitical uncertainty due to events in Ukraine/Russia.

Full report

PDF format / 0.95 MB

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January

Slow recovery ahead

The outlook for growth in the EBRD regions has remained largely unchanged: while the recovery in advanced economies gained further momentum, capital outflows from emerging markets continued.

Full report

PDF format / 0.89 MB

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Regional Economic Prospects reports from 2013

November

Weak growth despite Eurozone pickup

The outlook for growth in the EBRD regions has weakened further in line with slowing growth in other emerging markets, but also reflecting unfinished structural reforms weighing on growth potential.

Full report

PDF format / 0.30 MB

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May

No quick turnaround in sight

Growth in the EBRD regions is expected to decelerate further despite the effects of the Eurozone crisis abating, reflecting a significant slowdown in Russia and lagging structural reforms.

Full report

PDF format / 1.00 MB

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January

Bottoming out

The deceleration in the EBRD regions is showing signs of bottoming out and downside risks have continued to recede as the likelihood of a further deterioration of the Eurozone crisis diminishes.

Full report

PDF format / 0.95 MB

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On a selective basis, the EBRD’s Office of the Chief Economist conducts rigorous impact assessments of some of the Bank’s main operations. These studies comprise randomised controlled trials, lab-in-the-field experiments, as well as quasi-experimental approaches. The Bank's Impact Briefs summarise the main findings of each of these studies in a non-technical and accessible format.

In addition to these regular research publications, the EBRD produces topical reports periodically. These publications take a deeper look into specific issues relevant to the economies where we invest. Topics covered range from the green economy to the middle-income trap.

Links to our Impact Briefs and Special Reports are available below.

Other publications

Impact Briefs

Special Reports

Assessment of transition qualities (2017-present)

Following the revision of the EBRD's transition concept in 2016, the Bank has been assessing progress in the area of structural reform and transition in terms of the six qualities of a sustainable market economy: competitive, well governed, green, inclusive, resilient and integrated.

Progress in each of these areas is captured by the set of composite indices (referred to as “assessments of transition qualities” or “ATQs”), which combine information from a large number of indicators and assessments in a consistent manner. The resulting ATQ scores measure each economy’s performance against that of comparator advanced economies as well as other economies in the EBRD regions. Scores range from 1 to 10, where 10 represents a synthetic frontier corresponding to the standards of a sustainable market economy.

The latest available scores can be found in the document 'Assessment of transition qualities', below.

Transition indicators (1989-2014)

Initially, the EBRD assessed progress in transition through a set of transition indicators. These were used to track reform developments in all countries of operation from 1989-2014. Progress was measured against the standards of industrialised market economies, while recognising that there was neither a “pure” market economy nor a unique end-point for transition.

The measurement scale for the indicators ranged from 1 to 4+, where 1 represented little or no change from a rigid centrally planned economy and 4+ represented the standards of an industrialised market economy. The reform scores reflected the assessments of EBRD country economists using the criteria described in the methodological notes.

Assessments were made in six areas:

Large-scale privatisation
Small-scale privatisation
Governance and enterprise restructuring
Price liberalisation
Trade and foreign exchange system
Competition policy

Sector transition scores (2010-16)

From 2010-2016, the EBRD published assessments of progress in transition across a number of sectors. The transition indicators ranged from 1 to 4+, with 1 representing little or no change relative to a centrally planned economy and 4+ representing the standards of an industrialised market economy. For a detailed breakdown of each of the areas of reform and sectoral scores, see the methodological notes in the online versions of Transition Reports for the relevant years (tr-ebrd.com).

Structural change indicators (until 2010)

These indicators provided a quantitative foundation for analysing progress in transition in the following five sectors: enterprises, markets and trade, the financial sector and infrastructure. In addition, the data file contains the EBRD's transition indicators for these sectors. It covers data until 2010.

The file contains the following data series:

Enterprises: Privatisation revenues (% GDP), private sector size (% GDP, % employment), budgetary subsidies and current transfers (% GDP), industry size (% employment), labour productivity in industry (% change), investment (% GDP)

Markets and trade: Share of administered prices in CPI (%), number of goods with administered prices in EBRD-15 basket, share of trade with non-transition countries (%) , share of trade in GDP, tariff revenues (% imports)

Financial sector: Number of foreign-owned banks, asset share of state-owned banks (%), asset share of foreign-owned banks (%), non-performing loans (% total loans), domestic credit to private sector (% GDP), domestic credit to households (% GDP), mortgage lending (% GDP), stock market capitalisation (% GDP), stock trading volume (% market capitalisation), eurobond issuance (% GDP)

Infrastructure: Fixed-line (mobile) penetration rate (per 100 inhabitants), internet users (per 100 inhabitants), railway labour productivity (1989=100), residential electricity tariffs (USc kWh), average collection rate, electricity (%), GDP per unit of energy use (PPP in US dollars per kgoe)

EBRD transition indicators: small-scale privatisation, large-scale privatisation, enterprise reform, price liberalisation, forex and trade liberalisation, competition policy, banking sector, non-bank financial institutions, infrastructure (electric power, railways, roads, telecommunications, water and waste water)

OCE in the news

Research and economic analysis from the EBRD’s Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) reach global audiences through international media coverage, original OCE news stories and presentations by our economists at leading events, conferences and international forums. These activities showcase the impact and relevance of our work across diverse platforms.

Below, explore our latest features in global media, recent news stories and highlights from OCE economists in the spotlight during their time on the road.

In global media

Our news stories:

In the spotlight

At an UNCITRAL event in Vienna on 27 May 2025, our Director of Transition Impact and Global Economics, Alexander Plekhanov, discussed how negotiable cargo documents can boost regional connectivity and trade finance in Eurasia and beyond. Watch here.
On 28 March 2025, our Director of Research, Ralph De Haas, presented his paper “Violent Conflicts and Cross-Border Lending” at the 2025 WEFIDEV – RSF – CEPR Finance and Development Conference. Find the full paper here.
On 17 March 2025, our Senior Research Economist, Cevat Giray Aksoy, spoke at the UK House of Lords about remote work trends in the UK and globally, focusing on productivity and well-being implications. Watch here.

Office of the Chief Economist

Beata Javorcik

Ralph De Haas

Alexander Plekhanov

Peter Sanfey

Helena Schweiger

Cevat Giray Aksoy

J. Michelle Brock

Zsoka Koczan

Victoria Marino

Francesco Loiacono

Maxim Chupilkin

Tim Deisemann

Pablo García Guzmán

Oleg Konovalov

Ksenia Yakustidi

Recent Transition Reports

Transition Report 2023-24

Transition Report 2022-23

Transition Report 2021-22

Our surveys

Life in Transition Survey

Banking Environment and Performance Survey

Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey

Management, Organisation and Innovation Survey

Recent reports

Weaker momentum amid fragmenting trade and investment

Along the adjustment path

Taming inflation

Shifting gears

Getting by: High inflation weighs on purchasing power of households

Not out of the woods yet

A cold winter ahead? Confronting the energy crunch

The return of runaway prices: Dealing with expensive food and energy

In the shadow of the war: The economic fallout from the war on Ukraine

Bittersweet recovery

Recovery gathering pace

Covid-19 Early estimates of the damage, uncertain prospects

Covid-19 From shock to recovery

Covid-19 From shock to recovery

Stalling engines of growth

Facing global slowdown: More exposed, better prepared?

In the shadow of trade conflicts

Has growth peaked?

Accelerating in sync

Growth picking up despite political uncertainty

Return to modest growth

Modest pick-up amid continued uncertainty

Economic outlook split by conflicting forces

In the cross-currents of diverging monetary policies and Russia's recession

Oil-driven Russia downturn adds to weakness in EBRD economies

In the heavy shadow of the Ukraine/Russia crisis

The Ukraine/Russia crisis weighs on transition region's growth

Slow recovery ahead

Weak growth despite Eurozone pickup

No quick turnaround in sight

Bottoming out

Other publications

Impact Briefs

Special Reports

Assessment of transition qualities (2017-present)

Transition indicators (1989-2014)

Sector transition scores (2010-16)

Structural change indicators (until 2010)

The Economics of Demographic Change - 02 - 03 Jun 2025

Third accelerating growth for women entrepreneurs research conference - 27 - 28 Oct 2025

OCE in the news

In global media

Our news stories:

In the spotlight