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Author: EBRD Press Office
New statistics released today by the Global Emerging Markets Risk Database (GEMs) Consortium provide investors, credit rating agencies, regulators and policymakers with a broader and more granular evidence base for assessing credit risk in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs).
The statistics, released in three new publications, draw on pooled data from multilateral development banks (MDBs) and development finance institutions (DFIs). They cover private and public lending from 1994 to 2025 and sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed lending since 1984.
Together, the publications offer updated information on how often borrowers fail to repay (defaults), and how much lenders recover (recoveries) and how results vary by region, income group, sector, financing structure and currency.
This year’s publications provide more detail for investors and other market participants. The private lending report introduces additional insights on contract-lifetime default rates, financing currency, credit enhancements, default resolution, and institutional actions. The public lending report adds analysis by currency type, default type, resolution type, and actions taken. The sovereign report incorporates estimates for unresolved default events for the first time and provides further analysis by income group, region, and credit rating.
For the first time, the GEMs private lending publication includes a pilot analysis of credit spreads used to calculate returns. The analysis is based on data submitted by GEMs members and covers the period 2006 to 2025. Over the period, the average total spread was 3.77 per cent, in line with typical market expectations. The analysis complements default and recovery rates to provide a more comprehensive view of MDB and DFI lending performance in EMDEs.
The European Investment Bank (EIB) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) co-chair the GEMs Consortium which is comprised of all the leading MDBs and DFIs.
Emerging markets require investment-at-scale to meet their development objectives. The GEMs database, the world’s largest of credit risk statistics on MDB and DFI lending in emerging markets, helps investors judge the likelihood that loans will be repaid and how much may be recovered if a borrower defaults. Its annual publications provide the evidence investors need to make financing decisions.
The three new GEMs publications are:
Galytix, a U.K.-based, specialised AI firm for financial institutions, in collaboration with PwC Luxembourg, manage the GEMs database and produce the GEMs publications.
GEMs statistics are also available on the Bloomberg Terminal by searching “GEMs” on DSET and through Data360, the World Bank Group’s open data portal.
The latest statistics cover more than three decades of private, public and sovereign lending and, for the first time, an analysis of returns-related data
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