EBRD publishes first forecast for sub-Saharan Africa

• EBRD’s latest Regional Economic Prospects report issues forecasts for sub-Saharan economies
• Bank sees sub-Saharan economies growing by an average 4.7 per cent in 2025
• Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, Nigeria and Senegal became the Bank’s newest shareholders and countries of operation in 2025

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects growth in its new sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region to average a robust 4.7 per cent in 2025 and 4.6 per cent in 2026.

The economic forecasts were published today in the Bank’s Regional Economic Prospects report.

Including SSA and Iraq, the Bank forecasts 3.2 per cent growth in its regions in 2025 and 3.3 per cent growth in 2026. Economies in the EBRD regions remain under pressure from continued global geopolitical tensions, increased export competition from China and limited fiscal room for manoeuvre.

For Benin, the Bank forecasts growth of 6.6 per cent in 2025 and 6.3 per cent in 2026. It expects Côte d’Ivoire to grow 6.3 per cent in 2025, edging up slightly to 6.4 per cent in 2026. It sees Ghana’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 4.3 per cent in 2025 and 4.8 per cent in 2026, while for Kenya, it forecasts 4.7 per cent growth in 2025 and 4.9 per cent growth in 2026. The Bank forecasts Nigeria’s GDP growth at 3.4 per cent in 2025 and 3.3 per cent in 2026. For Senegal, it sees 8.4 per cent growth in 2025 before a moderation to 4.1 per cent in 2026.

At the Bank’s 2023 Annual Meeting in Samarkand, the Board of Governors approved an amendment to Article 1 of the Agreement Establishing the EBRD, enabling it to operate in sub-Saharan Africa and Iraq. The shareholder acceptance threshold required for the amendment to take effect was reached in April and the amended Article 1 has now entered into force.

Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, Nigeria and Senegal became the EBRD’s newest shareholders and investee economies in 2025.

The EBRD delivered a record €16.6 billion in investments across its economies in 2024, with annual disbursements hitting a record €10.6 billion. The Bank’s portfolio totalled €61.9 billion in 2024.