Real GDP grew at 3.8 per cent year on year in thefirst quarter of 2025, up from 3.1 per cent in thesame period of 2024. Petroleum output continuedto recover after a significant drop in 2020-22,recording a 17 per cent increase in the first half ofthe year. Output growth figures were revised up to3.3 per cent in 2023 and 4.1 per cent in 2024.Following the rebasing of GDP, the economy isnow thought to be one third larger than previouslyestimated. Inflation has been on a downwardtrajectory since the beginning of the year,reaching 22.2 per cent year on year in June, downfrom 24.5 per cent in January.
Fiscalconsolidation is progressing following fuel subsidyand tax reforms. The deficit narrowed from 4.3per cent of GDP in 2023 to 4.1 per cent in 2024,while the debt level stood at 38.5 per cent of GDPas of March 2025, significantly lower than theearlier figure of 52.1 per cent that was based onthe GDP estimates before rebasing. In 2025,Nigeria’s credit rating was upgraded by Fitch to B(from B-) and by Moody’s from Caa1 to B3. Thecurrent account surplus reached 5.9 per cent ofGDP in the first quarter of 2025. Growth isprojected at 3.4 per cent in 2025 and 3.3 percent in 2026 on gradual recovery in industry.Significant downside risks relate to structuralreforms stalling, security challenges affecting theoil sector and volatility of agricultural output.