Real GDP growth increased to 6.7 per cent in 2025 from 6.5 per cent in 2024, driven by higher-than-expected hydrocarbon output from the Sangomar field, where oil production exceeded 36 million barrels. The resulting surge in hydrocarbon exports narrowed the current account deficit to an estimated 5.6 per cent of GDP in 2025 from 11.5 per cent a year before. Inflationary pressures, which had picked up in the second half of 2025, eased in early 2026, with headline inflation falling to 0.8 per cent in February 2026. On the fiscal side, stronger economic activity boosted revenue mobilisation, while expenditure came in below planned levels, helping to narrow the fiscal deficit from 12 per cent of GDP at end 2024 (the Court of Auditors’ revised estimate) to 6.4 per cent at end 2025.
Nonetheless, the debt-to-GDP ratio remained elevated, at 120 per cent at end 2025 and sovereign creditworthiness deteriorated markedly, reflecting heightened debt sustainability concerns. Senegal’s sovereign rating remained under pressure: in March 2026; Standard & Poor’s downgraded the country’s local-currency rating to CCC+/C with a negative outlook, citing elevated refinancing risks, high 2026 financing needs and stalled IMF programme negotiations. Growth is forecast to slow to 2.5 per cent in 2026 and 2.7 per cent in 2027, as the one-off boost from the start of production at the Sangomar field fades and production volumes are expected to decline slightly. Spillover effects from the Middle East conflict are expected to raise energy and food prices, weighing on domestic consumption through inflation. Limited fiscal space, a consequence of the consolidation efforts needed to contain further debt accumulation, will constrain the government’s ability to cushion the economy from these external pressures. On the upside, ongoing discussions with the IMF on a new programme could, if successful, improve market sentiment and ease financing conditions.