In Poland we focus on:
Promoting the low carbon economy. Coal still accounts for more than 80 percent of Poland’s primary energy supply and the economy remains among the least energy efficient in the EU. Promoting low carbon solutions, energy efficiency and reduction of green-house gas (GHG) emissions will therefore remain a key strategic priority for the Bank’s operations over the coming years. The Bank will continue to support diversification of energy and fuel supplies (especially in renewable energy) and improving energy efficiency (both on the demand and supply side), together leading toward a more sustainable energy market in the country.
Current EBRD forecast for Poland’s Real GDP Growth in 2018: 4.7%
Current EBRD forecast for Poland’s Real GDP Growth in 2019: 3.6%
The Polish economy grew by 5.1 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2018, amid continuously robust household consumption and improved investment, the latter growing at 6.0 per cent year-on-year. Public investment has been expanding for some years, while private sector investment has finally showed early signs of recovery since the second quarter of 2018, driven mainly by foreign-owned companies and in sectors such as machinery, technical equipment, tools and transport.
The expansionary fiscal policy and improving labour conditions underpinned the solid household consumption growth. GDP growth may have peaked in mid-2018, but it is expected to remain robust over the forecast horizon. Amid increasing inflation, household consumption will likely soften to some extent, but the tightening labour market, noticeable largely in rising wages, will keep it at a high level. Investment is expected to continue its recovery, in particular in the public sector.
The labour market is undergoing a major structural shift. Labour supply is falling due to aging, a decreased retirement age, and lower participation of women because of higher social benefits. A counter-balancing factor is a surge in immigration, mostly from Ukraine and Asia. On a net basis, labour issues constitute a limiting factor for almost 50 per cent of companies in Poland, according to the third quarter of 2018 European Commission business survey. While difficulties in employing new workers may be a factor in favour of greater automatization in about 16 per cent of companies, according to a local employment agency, the shortage of workers has already delayed investment plans. This is especially visible in the construction sector.
A possible delay in the recovery in private investment of domestic companies constitutes a downside risk to GDP growth. Global trade disruptions contribute also to that uncertainty. As a result, GDP growth in 2018 is forecast to reach 4.7 per cent in 2018 before it slows down to 3.6 per cent in 2019.