EBRD lowers Türkiye growth forecasts

• EBRD adjusts Türkiye forecasts against the background of less favourable external conditions
• The Bank expects Türkiye to grow 3.5 per cent in 2026, 4.0 per cent in 2027
• Despite pressures, the economy’s shock absorption capacity remains strong

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects Türkiye’s economy to grow by 3.5 per cent in 2026, down from its 4.0 per cent forecast in February 2026.

Growth is projected to pick up to 4.0 per cent in 2027, also revised down from 4.5 per cent.

These forecasts were published today in the Bank’s Regional Economic Prospects report. Against a backdrop of global uncertainty, growth across the EBRD regions as a whole is expected to slow from 3.4 per cent in 2025 to 3.1 per cent in 2026, before recovering to 3.6 per cent in 2027. This represents a downward revision of 0.5 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, compared with the February 2026 projections.

The report attributes the downward revision of Türkiye’s growth forecasts to rising energy imports, persistent inflationary pressures and potential effects of the conflict in the Middle East on tourism and manufacturing value chains.

The report also notes that while energy import costs, capital outflows, lower tourism receipts and disruptions to industrial supply chains owing to the conflict in the Middle East may raise inflation and put pressure on the current account, strengthened fiscal and external buffers mean that the economy can absorb shocks comfortably.

The Bank’s cumulative investment in Türkiye stands at over €24 billion, with its current portfolio in the country totalling €8.5 billion.