Turkmenistan overview

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In Turkmenistan we focus on:

Supporting private sector development. Turkmenistan’s economy continues to be characterised by pervasive state intervention and state ownership. Although the number of private entrepreneurs and companies is growing, the private sector remains small and closely regulated by the state. In response to these broad reform challenges, during the next Strategy period the Bank will continue to focus its activities in Turkmenistan on supporting private sector development, both directly and indirectly via local partner banks. The EBRD will provide financing to privately-owned companies outside the oil and gas sectors, focusing on food processing and distribution, logistics, transport services, packaging, furniture, and hospitality. To support the development of effective and sustainable financial intermediation to the private sector, the EBRD will prioritise strengthening the financial sector to enable it to fund the economy by introducing market-oriented principles, and will launch a new banking framework agreement with existing and potentially new partner banks to channel funds to private sector MSME clients.

Promoting international integration. To support enhanced integration of Turkmenistan’s economy into the global economy, the EBRD will seek opportunities to attract much-needed FDI by investing alongside foreign strategic investors, and will promote cross-border trade through the Trade Facilitation Programme with eligible partner banks. The EBRD may consider supporting regional transport operations, particularly for projects with a sound business rationale and which are integrated into the CAREC transport corridors or the EU-TRACECA programme.

Laying the foundations for future reforms. In some sectors, particularly energy efficiency, power and municipal services, reforms have been insufficient to enable the EBRD to engage fully. The EBRD will therefore limit its activities in these areas to selective and targeted policy dialogue, as requested by the authorities, to promote the adoption of reforms leading to market-based solutions to the challenges in these sectors.

The EBRD’s latest Turkmenistan strategy was adopted on 10 July 2019

Turkmenistan's policy response to the coronavirus crisis

The EBRD is monitoring Turkmenistan's policy response to the coronavirus pandemic. Our biweekly publication identifies the major channels of disruption as well as selected impact and response indicators.

Learn more

Current EBRD forecast for Turkmenistan Real GDP Growth in 2021 4.6%

Current EBRD forecast for Turkmenistan Real GDP Growth in 2022 3.5%

Turkmenistan reported real GDP growth of 5.9 per cent year-on-year in 2020 and 6.1 per cent year-on-year in January-May 2021. Such a strong growth performance in 2020 is hard to reconcile with the wider economic context and disruption of regional trade and mobility linkages.
 
Exports, a major source of growth, plummeted by 39 per cent year-on-year in 2020, according to the IMF. The economy was estimated by the IMF to have grown by only 0.8 per cent year-on-year in 2020. The current account balance turned from a surplus of 1.3 per cent of GDP in 2019 to a deficit of 0.5 per cent in 2020. While the official exchange rate peg is maintained at 3.5 manats per US$, the parallel market exchange rate has depreciated from 18 manats per US$ in December 2019 to 28 manats in December 2020, and further to 35 manats in June 2021.
 
Average annual inflation accelerated from 5.1 per cent in 2019 to 7.6 per cent in 2020. Due to data paucity, forecasts are aligned with IMF projections, at 4.6 per cent and 3.8 per cent in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
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