Turkmenistan overview

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In Turkmenistan we focus on:

Supporting private sector development. Turkmenistan’s economy continues to be characterised by pervasive state intervention and state ownership. Although the number of private entrepreneurs and companies is growing, the private sector remains small and closely regulated by the state. In response to these broad reform challenges, during the next Strategy period the Bank will continue to focus its activities in Turkmenistan on supporting private sector development, both directly and indirectly via local partner banks. The EBRD will provide financing to privately-owned companies outside the oil and gas sectors, focusing on food processing and distribution, logistics, transport services, packaging, furniture, and hospitality. To support the development of effective and sustainable financial intermediation to the private sector, the EBRD will prioritise strengthening the financial sector to enable it to fund the economy by introducing market-oriented principles, and will launch a new banking framework agreement with existing and potentially new partner banks to channel funds to private sector MSME clients.

Promoting international integration. To support enhanced integration of Turkmenistan’s economy into the global economy, the EBRD will seek opportunities to attract much-needed FDI by investing alongside foreign strategic investors, and will promote cross-border trade through the Trade Facilitation Programme with eligible partner banks. The EBRD may consider supporting regional transport operations, particularly for projects with a sound business rationale and which are integrated into the CAREC transport corridors or the EU-TRACECA programme.

Laying the foundations for future reforms. In some sectors, particularly energy efficiency, power and municipal services, reforms have been insufficient to enable the EBRD to engage fully. The EBRD will therefore limit its activities in these areas to selective and targeted policy dialogue, as requested by the authorities, to promote the adoption of reforms leading to market-based solutions to the challenges in these sectors.

The EBRD’s latest Turkmenistan strategy was adopted on 10 July 2019

Turkmenistan's policy response to the coronavirus crisis

The EBRD is monitoring Turkmenistan's policy response to the coronavirus pandemic. Our biweekly publication identifies the major channels of disruption as well as selected impact and response indicators.

Learn more

Current EBRD forecast for Turkmenistan Real GDP Growth in 2021 6.3%

Current EBRD forecast for Turkmenistan Real GDP Growth in 2022 5.5%

 
Real GDP growth was reported at 6.2 per cent year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2021. The country is benefiting from the energy crunch given its ability to ratchet up production. Exports (primarily gas exports to China) rose by 36 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2021 but are still below 2020 levels.
 
The official exchange rate peg is maintained at TMM 3.5 per US dollar. The parallel market exchange rate depreciated from TMM 18 per US dollar in December 2019 to TMM 40 in April 2021 but has recovered since then to TMM 30 per US dollar as of August 2021. The government reported that in June 2021 it paid off the debt it owed China for the construction of a gas pipeline and associated projects, and that henceforth all gas revenues would accrue to the state budget. In August 2021, Fitch assigned Turkmenistan a B+ rating with a stable outlook.
 
The rating balances healthy fiscal and external positions with concerns over the difficult business environment, weak institutional capacity and state-centric economic policies. Real GDP growth is projected at 6.3 per cent in 2021 due to substantial export growth. The economy is forecast to slow down to 5.5 per cent in 2022 reflecting structural challenges in many dimensions, including the poor quality of the business environment, limited financial sector depth and restrictions on private sector operations in the country.
 
 
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