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Zsoka Koczan
Zsoka Koczan is an Associate Director, Lead Economist at the EBRD Office of the Chief Economist. In her role, she edits the Regional Economic Prospects, which review the latest economic developments in the EBRD regions, works on the Transition Report, EBRD’s annual flagship publication, and runs the Life in Transition Survey, a large household survey covering over 40 economies. She is also an external associate at the Centre for Political Economy and Institutional Studies, Birkbeck, University of London. Prior to joining the EBRD, she worked as an economist at the International Monetary Fund in the European and the Research Departments, primarily on the World Economic Outlook. She holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Cambridge.
Research interests
Migration
Inequality
Regional economics
Labour economics
Education
2014 – PhD in Economics, University of Cambridge (King’s College)
2010 – MPhil in Economics, University of Cambridge (King’s College)
2009 – BA Hons in Economics, University of Cambridge (King’s College)
Journal articles
'Cross-border insolvency in the Balkans region', with Catherine Bridge Zoller, Natalia Pagkou, Stathis Potamitis, Konstantinos Rachianiotis, Nicoleta Mirela Nastasie, Judge Marko Radović and Vuk Radović, International Insolvency Review, 2025. Presentation at UNCITRAL-EBRD-SBLA Insolvency Law Conference, Belgrade, June 2024.
'Attitudes to the Green Transition and Willingness to Pay in Emerging Markets: Concerned but Not Paying', with Pablo Garcia Guzman, Financial and Economic Review (Hungarian version), 2025.
'20 years of EU Membership: What Explains the Accession Bonus?', with Maxim Chupilkin and Alexander Plekhanov, Financial and Economic Review (Hungarian version; Chinese version), 2025.
‘Lasting scars: The long term effects of school closures on earnings’, World Development, 2024. Earlier version: EBRD Working Paper, No. 278, 2023.
‘Scarred for life? Recession experiences, beliefs and the state’, with Alexander Plekhanov, International Tax and Public Finance, 2023. Earlier version: EBRD Working Paper, No. 261, 2021.
‘Not all in this together? Early estimates of the unequal labour market effects of Covid-19’, Applied Economics, 2022. Earlier version: EBRD Working Paper, No. 249, 2020.
‘Perceptions of economic well-being in the Western Balkans’, Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, 2022. Earlier version: IMF Working Paper, No. 16/31, 2016.
‘Calling older workers back to work’, with Francesco Grigoli and Petia Topalova, Applied Economics Letters, 2021.
‘How do migration and remittances affect inequality? A case study of Mexico’, with Franz Loyola, Journal of International Development, 2021. Earlier version: IMF Working Paper, No. 18/136, 2018. VoxDev, November 2018.
‘A cohort-based analysis of labor force participation in advanced economies’, with Francesco Grigoli and Petia Topalova, Oxford Economic Papers, 2020. Earlier version: IMF Working Paper, No. 18/120, 2018.
‘Automation and labor force participation in advanced economies: Macro and micro evidence’, with Francesco Grigoli and Petia Topalova, European Economic Review, 2020. Earlier version: IMF Working Paper No. 18/150, 2018.
‘Storm clouds ahead? Migration and labor force participation rates in Europe’, with Benjamin Hilgenstock, Applied Econometrics and International Development, 2020. Earlier version: IMF Working Paper No. 18/148, 2018. Migration Museum Project blog.
‘Why is labour receiving a smaller share of global income?’, with Mai Chi Dao and Mitali Das, Economic Policy, 2019. Earlier version: IMF Working Paper No. 17/169, 2017. VoxEU, July 2020.
‘Late to the game? Capital flows to the Western Balkans’, Croatian Economic Survey, 2018. Earlier version: IMF Working Paper No. 17/92, 2017.
‘Remittances during crises: Evidence from ex-Yugoslavia’, Economics of Transition, 2016.
‘(Why) are immigrants unhappy?’ IZA Journal of Migration, 2016. Earlier version: Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No. 1314, 2013.
‘Does identity matter?’ Migration Studies, 2016. Earlier version: Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No. 1313, 2013.
‘Fiscal deficit and public debt in the Western Balkans: 15 years of economic transition’, Post-Communist Economies, 2016. Earlier version: IMF Working Paper No. 15/172, 2015.
‘How much do tariffs matter? Evidence from the customs union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia’, with Asel Isakova and Alexander Plekhanov, Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 2015. Earlier version: EBRD Working Paper, No. 154, 2013.
Working papers
‘Moving the goalposts: The changing objectives of industrial policy’, with Victoria Marino and Alexander Plekhanov, EBRD Working Paper, No. 311, 2025.
‘The economic consequences of war: Estimates using synthetic controls’, with Maxim Chupilkin, EBRD Working Paper, No. 271, 2022.
‘Those Were the Days? Greenfield FDI, Jobs and Inclusion in Emerging Markets’, with Philipp Paetzold and Nikola Vujic, EBRD Working Paper, No. 262, 2021. Country fact sheets.
‘Permanently displaced? Increasingly disconnected? Labor force participation in U.S. states and metropolitan areas’, with Benjamin Hilgenstock, IMF Working Paper No. 18/118, 2018.
‘Still attached? Are social safety nets working? Labor force participation in European regions’, with Benjamin Hilgenstock, IMF Working Paper No. 18/165, 2018.
‘More slack than meets the eye? Recent wage dynamics in advanced economies’, with Gee Hee Hong, Weicheng Lian and Malhar Nabar, IMF Working Paper No. 18/50, 2018.
‘Trading on their terms? Commodity exporters in the aftermath of the commodity boom’, with Aqib Aslam, Samya Beidas-Strom, Rudolfs Bems, Oya Celasun and Sinem Kılıç Çelik. IMF Working Paper No. 16/27, 2016.
‘How important are non-tariff barriers? Complementarity of infrastructure and institutions of trading partners’, with Alexander Plekhanov. EBRD Working Paper No. 159, 2013.
Policy writing, books and reports
'The political economy of demographic change', with Pablo Garcia Guzman, Zhaosheng Li, Alexander Plekhanov and Daniel Treisman, Transition Report, 2025-26.
'An introduction to industrial policies', with Maxim Chupilkin, Victoria Marino, Alexander Plekhanov and Xiaoyu Yan, Transition Report, 2024-25. See also: VoxEU, VoxTalks Economics.
'Household resilience in a turbulent world', Life in Transition Survey IV Report, October 2024. See also: VoxEU.
‘Trade, deteriorating terms of trade and FDI’, with Maxim Chupilkin, In: Central and Eastern European Economies and the War in Ukraine — Between a Rock and a Hard Place, Laszlo Matyas (Ed.), Springer, forthcoming.
‘Regional Economic Prospects’, with Alexander Plekhanov.
‘Houses, homes and heating’, with Maxim Chupilkin and Ireko Zamilov, Chapter 4, Transition Report, 2023-24.
‘The economics of war and peace’, with Maxim Chupilkin, Chapter 1, Transition Report, 2022-23. VoxEU: The economics of post-war recoveries and reconstructions.
‘Enterprises in Eastern Europe and Central Asia during the pandemic’, with Laura Valderrama, Grace Li, Jorge Salas, Péter Harasztosi and Simon Savšek, Business resilience in the pandemic and beyond: Adaptation, innovation, financing and climate action from Eastern Europe to Central Asia, 2022.
‘Trade and Innovation in the Middle East and North Africa’, with Matteo Ficarra, Meryem Gokten, Peter Harasztosi, Roberta Lesma, Rozalia Pal and Christoph Weiss. In: Unlocking Sustainable Private Sector Growth in the Middle East and North Africa, 2022. Earlier versions: EBRD Working Paper, No. 267, 2022, EIB MENA Enterprise Survey Report Working Paper, Vol. 6, 2022.
‘Financial Globalization and Inequality: Capital Flows as a Two-Edged Sword’, with Barry J. Eichengreen, Balazs Csonto and Asmaa A ElGanainy, In: How to achieve inclusive growth, Valerie Cerra, Barry Eichengreen, Asmaa El-Ganainy and Martin Schindler (Eds.), Oxford University Press, 2021. Earlier versions: EBRD Working Paper, No. 252, 2021, IMF Working Paper, No. 2021/004, 2021. VoxEU, January 2021.
‘The Impact of International Migration on Inclusive Growth: A Review’, with Giovanni Peri, Magali Pinat and Dmitriy L. Rozhkov, In: How to achieve inclusive growth, Valerie Cerra, Barry Eichengreen, Asmaa El-Ganainy and Martin Schindler (Eds.), Oxford University Press, 2021. Earlier version: IMF Working Paper, No. 2021/088, 2021.
‘Inequality in income, wealth, and consumption trends in the Western Balkans’, with Sara Savastano, In: Europe's income, wealth, consumption, and inequality, Georg Fischer and Robert Strauss (Eds.), Oxford University Press, 2021.
‘Digital divides’, with Daniel Diez Alonso and Philipp Paetzold, Chapter 1, Transition Report, 2021-22.
‘The state strikes back’, with Gian Piero Cigna, Pavle Djuric, Philipp Paetzold, Nikola Vujic and Yuliya Zemlytska, Chapter 2, Transition Report, 2020-21.
‘Macroeconomic overview’, with Martin Hoflmayr, Transition Report, 2019-20.
‘Governance at municipal and regional level’, with Michael Ganslmeier, Chapter 2, Transition Report, 2019-20.
‘Creating livable cities: Regional Perspectives’, with Alexander Plekhanov, Alexia Latortue and Caroline Pearce, Chapter 4, October 2019.
‘Closer together or further apart? Subnational regional disparities and adjustment in advanced economies’, with John Bluedorn, Weicheng Lian, Natalija Novta and Yannick Timmer, Chapter 2, World Economic Outlook, October 2019.
‘Work in progress: Improving youth labor market outcomes in emerging market and developing economies’, with Jaebin Ahn, Zidong An, John Christopher Bluedorn, Gabriele Ciminelli and Daniela Muhaj, IMF Staff Discussion Note, No. 19/02, 2019. IMF blog: Unlimited Opportunities: Creating More Jobs for Young People in Emerging Market and Developing Economies
‘Labor force participation in advanced economies: Drivers and prospects’, with Francesco Grigoli and Petia Topalova (team leader), Chapter 2, World Economic Outlook, April 2018. IMF blog: Wanted: Policies to encourage and enable work in advanced economies.
‘Recent wage dynamics in advanced economies: Drivers and implications’, with Gee Hee Hong, Weicheng Lian and Malhar Nabar (team leader), Chapter 2, World Economic Outlook, October 2017. IMF blog: The disconnect between unemployment and wages.
‘Migration and remittances in Latin America and the Caribbean: Engines of growth or macroeconomic stabilizers?’, with Kimberly Beaton, Svetlana Cerovic, Misael Galdamez, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Franz Loyola, Bogdan Lissovolik, Jan Kees Martijn, Yulia Ustyugova and Joyce Wong, Chapter 5, Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere, May 2017.
‘Understanding the downward trend in labor income shares’, with Mai Dao, Mitali Das (team leader), and Weicheng Lian, Chapter 3, World Economic Outlook, April 2017. IMF blog: Drivers of the declining labor share of income, IMF blog: The hollowing out of the middle-skilled labor share of income.
‘Global disinflation in an era of constrained monetary policy’, with Samya Beidas-Strom, Sangyup Choi, Davide Furceri (team leader), Bertrand Gruss, Sinem Kılıç Çelik, Ksenia Koloskova, and Weicheng Lian, Chapter 3, World Economic Outlook, October 2016.
‘Understanding the slowdown in capital flows to emerging markets'. Chapter 2, World Economic Outlook, with Rudolfs Bems (team leader), Luis Catão (team leader), Weicheng Lian and Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, April 2016.
‘Where are commodity exporters headed? Output growth in the aftermath of the commodity boom’, with Aqib Aslam, Samya Beidas-Strom, Rudolfs Bems, Oya Celasun (team leader) and Sinem Kılıç Çelik, Chapter 2, World Economic Outlook, October 2015.
‘Progress in structural transformation’ and ‘Macroeconomic developments and policies: Boom, bust, and the aftermath’, with Nina Budina, Chris Faircloth, Pamela Madrid Angers, Murad Omoev, Mikhail Pranovich, and Zaijin Zhan, under the supervision of Alasdair Scott. In: The Western Balkans: 15 Years of Economic Transition, IMF Regional Economic Issues Special Report, Zuzana Murgasova, Nadeem Ilahi, Jacques Miniane, Alasdair Scott, Ivanna Vladkova-Hollar, and an IMF Staff Team, 2015.
‘Regional trade integration and Eurasian Economic Union’, with Alexander Plekhanov and contributions from Veronika Zavacka. Chapter 4, Transition Report, 2012.