Economies of Central Asia will continue growing relatively strongly despite slowing growth in their major trading partner Russia, according to the latest Regional Economic Prospects report published by the EBRD today.
The EBRD forecasts that in Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Turkmenistan much of the effect of new natural resource deposits will be reflected in output growth in the first two to three quarters of 2014, while in the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan growth is expected to decelerate somewhat in the light of weaker demand and remittances flows from Russia.
Kazakhstan will grow by 5.6 per cent this year and 5.5 per cent in 2014. The forecast for this year is a marked change upwards from the previous figure published in May (up by 0.7 percentage points), on the back of resilient investment and an expansion of oil output. However, the banking sector in the country remains weak, burdened by non-performing loans.
In the Kyrgyz Republic, growth is expected to reach 6.5 per cent in 2013.
Tajikistan’s growth will slow slightly, to 7.1 per cent this year, due to slowing remittances from Russia.
In Turkmenistan, the economy will grow around 10 per cent this year as a new gas field comes on stream.
In Mongolia, growth is expected to reach 13 per cent in 2013 – a 3 percentage point reduction since the last forecast in May, reflecting difficulties with a flagship mining project.
Uzbekistan will see growth of around 7.7 per cent this year.