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EBRD expects Polish economy to grow by 3.7 per cent this year
Author: Nigina Mirbabaeva
- Polish economy expected to grow by 3.7 per cent in 2026, according to latest EBRD forecasts
- Bank has upgraded growth outlook by 0.3 percentage points amid increased public investment and strong consumption patterns
- Economy expected to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2027
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects Poland’s economy to continue growing at a robust pace in 2026, supported by stronger investment, easing inflation and increased absorption of European Union (EU) funds, according to the Bank's latest Regional Economic Prospects report.
The EBRD forecasts that growth in the country will pick up from 3.6 per cent in 2025 to 3.7 per cent in 2026. The 2026 forecast represents a 0.3 percentage point upward revision relative to the outlook published in September 2025. The upgrade reflects continued strong public investment alongside resilient private consumption.
Poland’s economy outperformed expectations in 2025, with real GDP growth accelerating to an estimated 3.6 per cent, the fastest pace since 2022. Fixed investment rebounded strongly following a contraction in 2024, rising by more than 4 per cent with support from faster absorption of EU funds and increased private capital spending linked to the energy transition and digitalisation.
Private consumption also continued to expand, although at a more moderate pace than in 2024 as households increased their savings. Inflation eased significantly, reaching 2.4 per cent by the end of 2025.
Public investment is expected to remain strong this year, underpinned by peak EU fund disbursements ahead of Recovery and Resilience Facility deadlines and increased defence spending.
At the same time, risks from weaker export demand and heightened global trade uncertainty could weigh on the growth trajectory.
The Bank expects Poland’s economy to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2027.
The EBRD is among the leading institutional investors in Poland. Since the start of its operations there in 1991, the Bank has invested more than €16.6 billion across the country.