EBRD upgrades Türkiye forecast for 2025

• EBRD upgrades Türkiye forecast to 3.1 per cent growth in 2025
• Market volatility and elevated uncertainty remain downside risks
• Türkiye can capitalise on its established economic strengths as regional context improves

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects Türkiye’s economy to grow by 3.1 per cent in 2025, upgrading it from the Bank’s previous 2.8 per cent growth forecast in May 2025 .

The Bank expects the Turkish economy to then grow by 3.5 per cent in 2026, unchanged from the previous forecast.

The forecasts were published today in the Bank’s Regional Economic Prospects report. Growth in the EBRD regions (excluding six economies in sub-Saharan Africa and Iraq) is expected to moderate to 3.1 per cent in 2025 as a whole from stronger than expected outturns in the first half of the year, before picking up to 3.3 per cent in 2026. The economies in the EBRD regions remain under pressure from continued global geopolitical tensions, increased competition from China in export markets and limited fiscal space.

Volatile risk sentiment and tighter global financing conditions remain key risks for Türkiye. On the upside, easing tensions in Syria and the Caucasus and closer cooperation with the EU could allow Türkiye to capitalise on its established strengths in construction, logistics and defence, according to the report.

The EBRD invested a record €2.6 billion in Türkiye in 2024, driven by the private sector’s appetite for green investments and the Bank’s continuing support for regions affected by the February 2023 earthquakes.

The Bank’s cumulative investment in the country stands at over €22.4 billion, with its current portfolio in the country totalling around €8 billion.