EBRD upgrades Türkiye’s growth outlook

• EBRD expects Türkiye to see real GDP growth of 4.0 per cent in 2026 and 4.5 per cent in 2027
• Upgrade follows strong growth performance in 2025
• Financial conditions have stabilised and investor confidence has recovered

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has upgraded its growth outlook for Türkiye, where real GDP growth is now projected to stand at 4.0 per cent in 2026 and 4.5 per cent in 2027 as the country’s macroeconomic stabilisation programme balances growth and disinflation objectives.

Growth in Türkiye accelerated from 3.3 per cent in 2024 to an estimated 3.7 per cent in 2025, reflecting better-than-expected outturns across most sectors despite episodes of market volatility and a tight fiscal and monetary policy mix.

Strong private consumption and investment offset lower net exports on the demand side, while weak agricultural performance was compensated for by stronger activity in other areas of production.

Financial conditions stabilised and investor confidence recovered in the second half of 2025, as evidenced by narrower credit default swap spreads and improved access to international capital markets. Meanwhile, gross international reserves climbed above US$ 200 billion (€169.8 billion) for the first time.

These forecasts were published today in the Bank’s Regional Economic Prospects report. Average growth in the EBRD regions picked up to stand at an estimated 3.4 per cent in 2025, with the Bank expecting average growth to rise to 3.6 per cent in 2026 and 3.7 per cent in 2027. The economies where the EBRD invests are continuing to navigate global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty, while resilient domestic demand and rapid adjustments in global supply chains are supporting economic activity.

The EBRD is one of Türkiye’s key investors, with more than €23 billion committed across the country since 2009, largely in the private sector.