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Covid-19 stress tests for the energy sector in Uzbekistan

By Giuseppe  Grimaldi

In May 2020, the government of Uzbekistan asked the international community for support in running financial stress tests of the country’s main energy enterprises to see how they would cope with the Covid-19 crisis. The EBRD was asked to work with the power generation company TPP, which manages the fleet of gas-fired power plants.

We built a model to forecast the cash flow of TPP until 2022. The results painted a worrying picture: under all scenarios examined, the company will be loss-making from 2020 until 2022.

These losses highlight the need to continue pursuing the energy sector reform programme initiated two years ago, not only to improve the near-term financial performance, but also to boost the sector’s resilience in the long-term. Based on the results of the stress tests, the EBRD and other international institutions will continue to support the Uzbek authorities in choosing the optimal policy response to guide the energy sector through this unprecedented crisis.

read the paper 

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