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Tajikistan overview

Urban scene in Tajikistan

The new country strategy for Tajikistan sets out the Bank’s priorities in the country for the period 2020-25 and addresses issues such as a volatile macroeconomic environment, a challenging business climate and vulnerability to climate change factors.

In the strategy period, the EBRD will aim to improve Tajikistan’s infrastructure, its regional connectivity and employment opportunities in the country. Tajikistan has one of the youngest populations of all the economies in which the Bank invests.

The EBRD’s operational and strategic priorities in Tajikistan will be based on the following three pillars:

  • strengthening the competitiveness of businesses and improving the business environment
  • fostering regional integration, energy reform and infrastructure connectivity
  • supporting wider access to better infrastructure and business services for women, young people and underdeveloped regions.

Regional cooperation is key to Tajikistan’s sustainable economic development, for the expansion of trade and for its energy security. Positive economic developments, including better interstate relations and connectivity, will allow the EBRD to support necessary reforms and facilitate the country’s transition to one based on private-sector growth.

The EBRD will be aiming to increase the size and scope of its operations. It will continue financing infrastructure and energy sector projects, as well as providing support for private sector companies.

The EBRD’s latest Tajikistan strategy was adopted on 26 February 2020

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The EBRD in Tajikistan: Results snapshot

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Current EBRD forecast for Tajikistan’s Real GDP Growth in 2023 7.5%

Current EBRD forecast for Tajikistan’s Real GDP Growth in 2024 7.5%

Impressive economic growth continued in the first half of 2023 when real GDP increased by 8.3 per cent year on year, supported by elevated public expenditures and the inflow of remittances from Russia. On the downside, in the first half of 2023, exports fell by 44.2 per cent year on year, as exports of precious and semi-precious metals and stones came to a halt on lower global prices. The economy is expected to post 7.5 per cent growth in 2023 and 2024. Stronger regional cooperation, resumption of gold exports and public investment in water and energy infrastructure are key upsides. Uncertainty over external demand related to China’s slowdown, as well potential conflicts over transboundary water resources, remain key risks to the outlook.

Tajikistan in the EBRD’s 2022-23 Transition Report

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