Transition countries are in danger of failing to match the living standards of more advanced market economies, even after they embark on a path to recovery after five years of crisis, the EBRD will argue in a new report to be published this Wednesday, 20 November 2013.
The Bank’s Transition Report 2013 says that—without remedial action -- economic growth in the wake of the crisis will be not robust enough to support the process of “economic convergence”. But it does not blame the crisis alone.
The reasons also lie in a stagnation of reforms that predates the worst economic slump since the collapse of Communism and the report asks whether this region is now irrevocably “Stuck in Transition”.
From this starting point, the various chapters of the Transition Report 2013 analyse why the transition countries have turned their back on reform and what has to be done to restart the process.
The report examines the factors that constrain reforms. And with a special emphasis on the relationships between economic and democratic developments, it looks at the extent to which democratic progress promotes-- and at the same time depends on -- economic reform.
It will point to evidence showing that economic development usually – but not always – leads to democracy, while democracy – again with limitations – can emerge from economic reforms.
Without either there is a vicious cycle of reform stagnation and stifled growth. With both there is the chance of a virtuous circle leading to greater prosperity. The report assesses just how that virtuous circle can be achieved and what can stand in its way.
It also includes new analysis on the role of education in supporting the reform process and the extent to which equality and inequality of opportunity in society is relevant to the successful delivery of a reform agenda.
Pulling all these elements together the Transition Report assesses the chances putting the reform process – and thereby the convergence process – back on track.