Economic forecasts
Our Regional Economic Prospects review the latest economic developments in the EBRD regions and provide a discussion of recent growth performance as well the latest forecasts prepared by economists and economic analysts at the EBRD.
They also provide analysis on topical issues such as the impact of the war on Ukraine and high inflation on the economies in the EBRD regions and implications for policies.
They thus complement the Transition Report, the EBRD’s annual economic report published in November, which puts a greater emphasis on developments in the area of structural reform and cross-cutting structural issues such as inequality or governance.
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2023 May |
Getting by: High inflation weighs on purchasing power of households (slides). As energy prices have moderated, inflation started coming down. However, repeated crises—reflected in two recessions in quick succession—have weighed on the financial situation of households. |
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2023 February Update |
Not out of the woods yet (slides). Growth surprised on the upside, but continued high gas prices weigh on the outlook and disinflation may be slower than expected. |
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2022 September |
A cold winter ahead? Confronting the energy crunch (slides). Higher gas prices continue to push up inflation and gas import bills. Higher costs in gas-intensive sectors and spillovers from advanced Europe also weigh on growth. |
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2022 May |
The return of runaway prices: Dealing with expensive food and energy (slides). Increases in food and energy prices added to inflationary pressures, which were already high before the war on Ukraine. Some economies are further affected through trade, tourism and remittance links and a reassessment of geopolitical risks. |
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2022 March Update |
In the shadow of the war: The economic fallout from the war on Ukraine. Growth is expected to decelerate as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been having a profound impact on the economies in the EBRD regions as well as globally. |
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2021 November |
Bittersweet recovery (slides). In 2021 a recovery has been gathering pace. However, while there are encouraging developments, some vulnerabilities have also increased. |
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2021 June |
Recovery gathering pace (slides). Industrial production and retail sales have largely recovered and demand for manufacturing exports has been strong. However, foreign investments are far below their pre-crisis levels and the outlook for international tourism remains highly uncertain. |
| 2020 September | Covid-19 Early estimates of the damage, uncertain prospects (slides) Output contracted sharply as the effects of social distancing measures aimed at containing the spread of Covid-19 were compounded by weaker demand for exports, a collapse in tourism, a drop in remittances and low commodity prices. |
| 2020 May update | Covid-19 From shock to recovery(slides) The coronavirus pandemic hit on top of the ongoing slowdown in growth and is expected to result in a substantial output contraction, at least in the near term. |
| 2020 April | Covid-19 From shock to recovery(slides) The coronavirus pandemic weighs on growth as the economic impact of domestic containment measures is compounded by external shocks: lower commodity prices, disruptions to value chains and a collapse in tourism. |
| 2019 November | Stalling engines of growth Growth in the EBRD regions decelerated, in line with the slowdown in global industrial production, led by a contraction in the automotive sector, weighing in particular on emerging Europe. |
| 2019 May |
Facing global slowdown: More exposed, better prepared? Growth and export growth weakened in the EBRD regions, mirroring the global trade slowdown, and despite easing financing conditions. |
| 2018 November |
In the shadow of trade conflicts Escalating trade conflicts represent a risk to the EBRD regions, which has become more dependent on global economic conditions, though strong macroeconomic frameworks and fiscal space could facilitate appropriate policy responses. |
| 2018 May | Has growth peaked? Following two years of sustained and broad-based growth accelerations, growth in the EBRD regions is expected to moderate, reflecting weak productivity growth and adverse demographic trends. |
| 2017 November | Accelerating in sync The EBRD regions have experienced an unusually broad-based acceleration of growth, with contributions from higher exports and stronger investment activity. |
| 2017 May | Growth picking up despite political uncertainty The outlook for growth in the EBRD region is broadly stable despite a global environment characterized by increased political uncertainty, but supported by higher oil prices. |
| 2016 November | Return to modest growth The outlook for the EBRD regions has improved at the margin, reflecting a partial recovery of capital flows into emerging markets and modest recovery of oil prices. |
| 2016 May | Modest pick-up amid continued uncertainty After five years of continued deceleration, growth is expected to pick up only modestly reflecting increased volatility in global financial markets, lower capital flows to emerging markets and weak global trade. |
| 2015 November | Economic outlook split by conflicting forces The outlook for the EBRD regions has remained broadly unchanged, but masks different sub-regional trends, reflecting expectations of monetary policy tightening in the US versus quantitative easing in the Eurozone, and a further drop in commodity prices. |
| 2015 May | In the cross-currents of diverging monetary policies and Russia's recession The broadly-unchanged outlook for the EBRD regions hides diverging sub-regional trends and larger-than expected negative spillovers from the deep recession in Russia. |
| 2015 January | Oil-driven Russia downturn adds to weakness in EBRD economies Growth in the EBRD regions is expected to weaken materially as low commodity prices weigh on commodity exporters, though with major differentiation among sub-regions. |
| 2014 September | In the heavy shadow of the Ukraine/Russia crisis The growth outlook for the EBRD regions has weakened further reflecting intensification of the Ukraine/Russia crisis, new rounds of economic sanctions on Russia and a still-fragile recovery in the Eurozone. |
| 2014 May | The Ukraine/Russia crisis weighs on transition region's growth The growth outlook for the EBRD regions has deteriorated as a more positive outlook for the Eurozone is more than offset by increased geopolitical uncertainty due to events in Ukraine/Russia. |
| 2014 January | Slow recovery ahead The outlook for growth in the EBRD regions has remained largely unchanged: while the recovery in advanced economies gained further momentum, capital outflows from emerging markets continued. |
| 2013 November | Weak growth despite Eurozone pickup The outlook for growth in the EBRD regions has weakened further in line with slowing growth in other emerging markets, but also reflecting unfinished structural reforms weighing on growth potential. |
| 2013 May | No quick turnaround in sight Growth in the EBRD regions is expected to decelerate further despite the effects of the Eurozone crisis abating, reflecting a significant slowdown in Russia and lagging structural reforms. |
| 2013 January | Bottoming out The deceleration in the EBRD regions is showing signs of bottoming out and downside risks have continued to recede as the likelihood of a further deterioration of the Eurozone crisis diminishes. |
First launched in January 2013, the publication includes forecasts of economic growth for each country in the EBRD regions one and two years ahead.
The forecasts published in Regional Economic Prospects are prepared by economists and economic analysts at the EBRD and are accompanied by a short summary of recent economic developments and outlook in each economy.
Regional Economic Prospects also cover estimates of recent growth performance and short-term economic outlook based on forecasting models.
These models combine principal component analysis (nowcasting) based on more than 150 economic indicators available with a short lag (such as commodity prices, exchange rates, imports or industrial production) and the estimates of medium-term potential economic growth based on fundamental characteristics of each economy such as the quality of human capital, the quality of economic and political institutions or demographic trends.
As part of Regional Economic Prospects we regularly publish brief evaluations of the performance of our economic forecasts.
