We remain deeply concerned by the actions of the authorities and the situation with human rights and freedom of speech in Belarus and are currently not considering new public or private investments in the country.
Ever since the disputed Presidential election of August 2020, we have urged the authorities to pursue an inclusive national dialogue to explore a way forward for Belarus.
In September 2020 we decided to stop considering new public sector projects in the country.
In November 2021 EBRD management proposed that, for the time being, the Bank will not consider new investment projects, including private ones.
The EBRD will maintain its country presence through its Minsk resident office.
The EBRD’s latest Belarus strategy was adopted on 7 September 2016
Belarus's policy response to the coronavirus crisis
The EBRD is monitoring Belarus's policy response to the coronavirus pandemic. Our biweekly publication identifies the major channels of disruption as well as selected impact and response indicators.
GDP forecast for Belarus’s Real GDP growth in 2021 2.0%
GDP forecast for Belarus’s Real GDP growth in 2022 0.2%
GDP growth in Belarus reached a peak of 3.5 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2021, but slowed to 3.0 per cent in January-August 2021. Growth was largely driven by double-digit (in percentage terms) real growth of exports and revived household consumption. On the production side, the growth of industrial production has been decelerating after the strong increase up to May 2021, due to the ending of base effects and possibly some early impact from international sanctions.
The current account was slightly positive in the first half of 2021, and the currency has stabilised. However, inflation accelerated to 10.2 per cent year-on-year in September 2021, well above the central bank’s target rate of 5 per cent, prompting it to raise the refinancing rate twice to 9.25 per cent. Economic sanctions and targeting of the export-focused potash and petroleum industries as well as sanctions-related supply shortages are expected to hit the economy later in 2021 and throughout 2022. At the same time, a strong commodities-based recovery in Russia, its main trading partner, could have a positive impact on Belarusian exports.
Belarus in the EBRD’s 2021-22 Transition Report