Tajikistan overview

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Urban scene in Tajikistan

The new country strategy for Tajikistan sets out the Bank’s priorities in the country for the period 2020-25 and addresses issues such as a volatile macroeconomic environment, a challenging business climate and vulnerability to climate change factors.

In the strategy period, the EBRD will aim to improve Tajikistan’s infrastructure, its regional connectivity and employment opportunities in the country. Tajikistan has one of the youngest populations of all the economies in which the Bank invests.

The EBRD’s operational and strategic priorities in Tajikistan will be based on the following three pillars:

  • strengthening the competitiveness of businesses and improving the business environment
  • fostering regional integration, energy reform and infrastructure connectivity
  • supporting wider access to better infrastructure and business services for women, young people and underdeveloped regions.

Regional cooperation is key to Tajikistan’s sustainable economic development, for the expansion of trade and for its energy security. Positive economic developments, including better interstate relations and connectivity, will allow the EBRD to support necessary reforms and facilitate the country’s transition to one based on private-sector growth.

The EBRD will be aiming to increase the size and scope of its operations. It will continue financing infrastructure and energy sector projects, as well as providing support for private sector companies.

The EBRD’s latest Tajikistan strategy was adopted on 26 February 2020

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The EBRD in Tajikistan: Results snapshot

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Tajikistan's policy response to the coronavirus crisis

The EBRD is monitoring Tajikistan's policy response to the coronavirus pandemic. Our biweekly publication identifies the major channels of disruption as well as selected impact and response indicators.

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Current EBRD forecast for Tajikistan’s Real GDP Growth in 2021 6.5%

Current EBRD forecast for Tajikistan’s Real GDP Growth in 2022 6.2%

The economy expanded by 8.7 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2021.
 
Growth was led by recovery in domestic demand and a strong increase in exports. Retail trade turnover increased by 12.8 per cent year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2021 supported by an inflow of remittances from Russia (up 11 per cent year-on-year in US dollar terms in January-June 2021).
 
Fixed investment increased by 29.6 per cent year-on-year. Exports rose by 30 per cent year-on-year in the same period, driven by mineral and gold exports. At the same time, imports rose by 34 per cent year-on-year, reflecting the recovery of domestic demand.
 
Annual inflation stood at 9.4 per cent in August 2021, outside the central bank target corridor of between 4 and 8 per cent. The policy rate was raised from 10.75 per cent in January 2021 to 11.0 per cent in February, and was further increased by 1 percentage point in April and another 1 point in August.
 

Tajikistan in the EBRD’s 2021-22 Transition Report

 
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