Regional Economic Prospects

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'Well governed' is one of the EBRD's six transition qualities

Economic forecasts

Published in May and November each year, our Regional Economic Prospects review the latest economic developments in the EBRD regions.

They also focus on specific issues such as the impact of Brexit on the economies in the EBRD regions, the evolution of macroeconomic policy frameworks or the outlook for the automotive sector and its implications for our countries.

2019

May, November (slides)

2018 May, November
 
2017 May, November
 
2016 May, November
 
2015 January, May, November
 
2014 January, May, September
 
2013 January, May, November
 

 

First launched in January 2013, the publication includes forecasts of economic growth for each country in the EBRD regions one and two years ahead.

Regional Economic Prospects thus complement the Transition Report, EBRD’s annual economic report published in November, which puts a greater emphasis on developments in the area of structural reform and cross-cutting structural issues such as inequality or governance.

The forecasts published in Regional Economic Prospects are prepared by economists and economic analysts at the EBRD and are accompanied by a short summary of recent economic developments and outlook in each economy.

The shift from publishing forecasts three times a year prior to 2016 to two reports a year reflects relative stability of economic outlook in recent years.

Regional Economic Prospects also cover estimates of recent growth performance and short-term economic outlook based on forecasting models.

These models combine principal component analysis (nowcasting) based on more than 150 economic indicators available with a short lag (such as commodity prices, exchange rates, imports or industrial production) and the estimates of medium-term potential economic growth based on fundamental characteristics of each economy such as the quality of human capital, the quality of economic and political institutions or demographic trends.

As part of Regional Economic Prospects we regularly publish brief evaluations of the performance of our economic forecasts.

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