Ukraine overview

Cityscape in Ukraine

Since early 2014, as a response to the crisis that engulfed Ukraine in late 2013, the EBRD has been providing a comprehensive support package that assists the stabilisation and anchoring of reforms to the maximum extent possible under the strategic framework of its ‘Reform Anchoring & Crisis Response Package’.

The package’s three priorities are: 1) banking sector stabilisation and restructuring; 2) energy security and energy sector reforms; 3) financing of key private corporate players.

More broadly, and on the basis of the EBRD’s 2011 strategy for Ukraine, the Bank works in the following areas:

Energy: the EBRD supports electricity transmission networks, operations that integrate Ukraine into the European energy market and operations that increase overall energy efficiency and decrease the sector’s carbon intensity. We will also support the modernisation of Ukraine’s gas transportation and distribution system, provided the authorities pursue a comprehensive and credible reform agenda, including restructuring NAK Naftogaz.

Enterprises: the EBRD supports FDI and local enterprises to help diversify the economy and restructure old energy-intensive industries with a focus on improving governance, transparency and energy efficiency.

In recognition of Ukraine’s great potential as an agricultural producer, the EBRD supports investments along the whole value chain and especially the instruments that support primary producers.

The EBRD assists Ukraine in the development of knowledge intensive industries and effective use of its human and scientific potential and also supports the government’s privatisation programme of remaining state enterprises, promoting the transparency of the process in order to maximise value for the public sector.

Infrastructure: In the road sector, the EBRD supports the completion of the modernisation of the main transport corridor connecting Ukraine to the European Union. We are re-engaging with Ukraine’s railway sector following the government’s decision to resume sector reforms by completing corporatisation of the national rail operator Ukrzaliznytsia and creating conditions for private sector operations and investment.

The EBRD also supports the commercialisation of municipal utilities through projects with large demonstration effects or energy efficiency gains.

Financial Sector and Capital Markets: our main priorities include providing the banking sector with targeted long-term loan and equity funding together with technical assistance to help support activities that help to strengthen the sector’s future stability.

The lending instruments focus on micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, financing energy efficiency improvements and trade facilitation with the use of appropriate technical assistance. In cooperation with other IFIs, the EBRD will help the authorities strengthen the role of private capital in the banking sector. We will work with other IFIs and the National Bank of Ukraine to address remaining issues preventing the EBRD from structuring loans in local currency.

The EBRD is also providing support to institutions under the Reform Support Architecture for Ukraine:

The recent period of political instability has had a profound impact on progress in reform implementation and public administration reform.  In this context, the EBRD, together with the EU and other international partners, has adjusted its policy support to match arising needs and reform progress on the ground. We have been engaging intensively with key Ukrainian decision-makers in a dialogue to rebuild momentum, re-focus critical reform priorities and build a sustainable reform approach.

As a result of this engagement, the Ukrainian Prime Minister and President have agreed to a new, more coherent and efficient, reform support architecture.

The EBRD is supporting reform teams whose activities range from conceptualising reform processes to assisting in their implementation. The Bank is providing support for:

  • The development and coordination of national reform priorities, through the support of the National Reforms Council’s (NRC) Project Management Office, the technical implementation body of the NRC.
  • The establishment of Reform Support Teams (RSTs), in selected priority ministries, which will be tasked with the implementation of priority reforms undertaken by these ministries, and the transformation of public administration within these ministries.
  • The establishment of a high-level international Strategic Advisory Group for Support of Ukrainian Reforms (SAGSUR), providing expert advice to the Prime Minister and President on how to deliver reforms efficiently and effectively.

As well as being a country where the EBRD works, Ukraine is also an EBRD donor. Ukraine is both a contributor and a beneficiary of the Eastern Europe Energy Efficiency and Environment Partnership (E5P) Fund. In 2015 Ukraine paid a €2 million instalment, raising its overall stake in E5P to €10 million.

The EBRD’s latest Ukraine strategy was adopted on 13 April 2011

Current GDP forecast for Ukraine’s Real GDP growth in 2018 3.0%

Current GDP forecast for Ukraine’s Real GDP growth in 2019 3.0%

The growth of Ukrainian economy remains subdued. Real GDP expanded by 2.5 per cent in 2017. Household consumption and domestic investment in fixed assets fueled, in turn, by residential construction were the main drivers of the output growth in this period. In 2017, exports of goods and services increased modestly in real volume terms following five consecutive years of contraction. Inflows of remittances are estimated to have reached close to 8.5 per cent of GDP in 2017 as a result of intensified labour migration from Ukraine in recent years. Consumer price inflation has slowed from peak levels of 2015 but remains elevated at 13.8 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2018. To bring inflation down into the target range, the NBU reversed its monetary policy direction by raising the key policy rate four consecutive times from 12.5 per cent in September 2017 to 17 per cent in March 2018. Ukraine’s official reserve assets stood at US$ 18.2 billion as of March 2018, covering approximately three and a half months of imports. Continuation of the IMF programme is uncertain due to the lacking commitment on the part of the authorities to meet key reform requirements. We forecast the Ukrainian economy to grow by 3 per cent in 2018 and 2019 but large foreign exchange debt repayments by the public sector falling due in 2018-20 and the forthcoming elections cycle in 2019 represent important risks to the growth outlook.

Ukraine in the EBRD’s 2015-16 Transition Report