In Romania we focus on:
Promoting stability and expanding products in the financial sector. Given the continuing global economic and financial uncertainty, the stability of the financial sector is still at risk. Further development is also required in the areas of leasing and insurance and local capital markets.
Strengthening infrastructure through improved efficiency and greater private sector involvement. It is necessary to develop the national infrastructure sector, especially roads, and, where appropriate, to introduce private sector investment via concessions /PPPs and the privatisation of transport operators. In many infrastructure operations (water, waste, roads, rail, district heating, etc.) there is a need for improved operating efficiency and service levels, and less dependence on public subsidies and state financing.
Restructuring the power sector and increasing energy efficiency and sustainability. A large part of Romania’s energy sector is still state-owned and needs to be restructured and/or privatised to encourage investment and to promote efficiency. Despite improvements in recent years, Romania is still an energy-intensive economy and needs to make further progress in the transition to an efficient, low carbon economy.
The EBRD’s latest Romania strategy was adopted on 30 September 2015
Current EBRD forecast for Romania’s Real GDP Growth in 2015 3.5%
Current EBRD forecast for Romania’s Real GDP Growth in 2016 3.7%
Romania’s economy grew by 3.8 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2015, as a rise in wages and low inflation led to higher disposable income and supported consumption. The lower cost of funding, following improved investor confidence and the NBR’s policy rate cut in May to a historically low level of 1.75 per cent, contributed to a rise of investments, which have reached their strongest level in the last five years.
In the remainder of 2015 and 2016, growth will continue to be supported by stronger domestic demand. Consumption will be boosted by higher disposable income, as a consequence of the recent VAT cut on food products from 24 per cent to 9 per cent, as well as introduced and planned public wage hikes. Private investments will continue to recover on the back of improved investor sentiments and previous decline in the cost of funding, while government investment is expected to rise in the second half of 2015 as the country absorbs more EU funds. Overall, we expect Romania to grow at 3.5 per cent in 2016, with average inflation remaining negative in 2015, on the back of recent and planned VAT cuts, low oil prices and low inflation expectations.