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Forecasts, macro data, transition indicators

On this page, you can find EBRD's growth forecasts, its transition indicators and various macro economic data series. All indicators are listed by name. If you already know what you are looking for, you might find it practical to use the search function in your browser. 

Economic Forecasts and other Regional Economic Prospects data

EBRD publishes growth forecasts for its countries of operation three times per year together with its Regional Economic Prospects Update. The annex tables to this publication also contain other macro economic and financial data.

Regional Economic Prospects updates

2014

September (393KB - PDF)
May (995KB - PDF)
January (932KB - PDF)

2013

November (315KB - PDF)
May (1MB - PDF)
January (993KB - PDF)

2012

October (467KB - PDF)
July (517KB - PDF)
May (676KB - PDF)
January (787KB - PDF)

2011

October (735KB - PDF)
July (12MB - PDF)

Data

Annual indicators and projections (153KB - PDF) (January 2014)
Quarterly GDP (173KB - PDF) (January 2014)
Vulnerability indicators (151KB - PDF) (January 2014)

These data files contain the following data series:

Forecasts and annual indicators: EBRD's growth forecasts and growth performance in the last two years, inflation, fiscal balance, current account, net FDI. 

Quarterly GDP: Seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP growth, year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. 

Vulnerability indicators: FX loans: corporate/household/total private, government debt, external debt: private/short-term/ total, gross reserves (USD bn, % sh.t. debt), banking system assets: state-owned banks / private banks / total (% total assets), bank deposits, loan-to-deposit ratio, country CDS spreads (bps.). All in % GDP unless otherwise specified.

Transition indicators

The EBRD assesses progress in transition through a set of transition indicators. These have been used to track reform developments in all countries of operations since 1989. Progress is measured against the standards of industrialised market economies, while recognising that there is neither a “pure” market economy nor a unique end-point for transition.

The measurement scale for the indicators ranges from 1 to 4+, where 1 represents little or no change from a rigid centrally planned economy and 4+ represents the standards of an industrialised market economy. The reform scores reflect the assessments of EBRD country economists using the criteria described in the methodological notes.

Transition indicators by country (25KB - XLSX)
Transition indicators by sector (25KB - XLSX)

Assessments are made in six areas: 

  1. Large scale privatisation
  2. Small scale privatisation
  3. Governance and enterprise restructuring
  4. Price liberalisation 
  5. Trade and foreign exchange system
  6. Competition policy

Please find more detailed information on the methodology behind the transition indicators behind the link. 

Structural change indicators

These indicators provide a quantitative foundation for analysing progress in transition in the following five sectors: enterprises, markets and trade, the financial sector and infrastructure. In addition, the data file contains EBRD's transition indicators for these sectors. It covers data until 2010.

Structural change indicators (524KB - XLS)

The file contains the following data series: 

Enterprises: Privatisation revenues (% GDP), private sector size (% GDP, % employment), budgetary subsidies and current transfers (% GDP), industry size (% employment), labour productivity in industry (% change), investment (% GDP) 

Markets and trade: Share of administered prices in CPI (%), number of goods with administered prices in EBRD-15 basket, share of trade with non-transition countries (%) , share of trade in GDP, tariff revenues (% imports)

Financial sector: Number of foreign-owned banks, asset share of state-owned banks (%), asset share of foreign-owned banks (%), non-performing loans (% total loans), domestic credit to private sector (% GDP), domestic credit to households (% GDP), mortgage lending (% GDP), stock market capitalisation (% GDP), stock trading volume (% market capitalisation), eurobond issuance (% GDP)

Infrastructure: Fixed-line (mobile) penetration rate (per 100 inhabitants), internet users (per 100 inhabitants), railway labour productivity (1989=100), residential electricity tariffs (USc kWh), average collection rate, electricity (%), GDP per unit of energy use (PPP in US dollars per kgoe)

EBRD transition indicators: small-scale privatisation, large-scale privatisation, enterprise reform, price liberalisation, forex and trade liberalisation, competition policy, banking sector, non-bank financial institutions, infrastructure (electric power, railways, roads, telecommunications, water and waste water)

Learn more about the methodology behind these data series.  Share of foreign owned banks (26KB - XLSX)

Transition development snapshots

The structural change indicators can not give a complete account or precise measurement of progress in transition, given the inherent difficulties of measuring structural and institutional change. The transition developments snapshots try to compensate for these shortcomings by highlighting qualitative or institutional developments in a number of key economic areas. 

Transition development snapshots (39KB - XLS)

The file contains the following data series: 

Liberalisation and privatisation: Current account convertibility, controls on inward direct investment, interest rate liberalisation, exchange rate regime, wage regulation, tradability of land 

Business environment and competition: Competition office, quality of insolvency law, secured transactions law

Infrastructure: Telecoms regulatory assessment compliance, independence of electricity regulator, separation of railway infrastructure from operations, independence of the road directorate

Financial sector: Capital adequacy ratio, deposit insurance system, private pension funds

Social reform: Share of population living in poverty, government expenditure on health (% GDP), government expenditure on education (% GDP), household expenditure on power and water

More about the methodology behind these indicators. 


Last updated 18 September 2014