Forecasts, macro data, transition indicators

Economic Forecasts and other Regional Economic Prospects data

EBRD publishes growth forecasts for its countries of operation three times per year together with its Regional Economic Prospects Update. The annex tables to this publication also contain other macro economic and financial data.

Latest update:

Regional Economic Prospects: May 2012 (676KB - PDF)
Regional Economic Prospects: January 2012 (787KB - PDF)
Regional Economic Prospects: October 2011 (735KB - PDF)
Regional Economic Prospects: Quarterly Update July 2011 (12MB - PDF)

Data:
Forecasts and annual indicators

Quarterly GDP

Vulnerability indicators

Financial market indicators

These data files contain the following data series:

Forecasts and annual indicators: EBRD's growth forecasts and growth performance in the last two years, inflation, fiscal balance, current account, net FDI. 

Quarterly GDP: Seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP growth, year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. 

Vulnerability indicators: FX loans: corporate / household / total private, government debt, external debt: private / short-term / total, gross reserves (USD bn, % sh.t. debt), banking system assets: state-owned banks / private banks / total (% total assets), bank deposits, loan-to-deposit ratio, country CDS spreads (bps.). All in % GDP unless otherwise specified.

Financial market indicators: Country CDS spreads (bps.), interbank rates (%), equity indices (2008=100), exchange rate (per EUR or USD). For all of these indicators, three data points are shown: March 2009, one week ago and latest. 

Transition indicators

The EBRD assesses progress in transition through a set of transition indicators. These have been used to track reform developments in all countries of operations since 1989. Progress is measured against the standards of industrialised market economies, while recognising that there is neither a “pure” market economy nor a unique end-point for transition.

The measurement scale for the indicators ranges from 1 to 4+, where 1 represents little or no change from a rigid centrally planned economy and 4+ represents the standards of an industrialised market economy. The reform scores reflect the assessments of EBRD country economists using the criteria described in the methodological notes.

Transition indicators by country (860KB - XLS)

Transition indicators by sector (422KB - XLS)

Assessments are made in nine areas: 

1. Large scale privatisation
2. Small scale privatisation
3. Governance and enterprise restructuring
4. Price liberalisation 
5. Trade and foreign exchange system
6. Competition policy
7. Banking reform and interest rate liberalisation
8. Securities markets and non-bank financial institutions
9. Infrastructure

Please find more detailed information on the methodology behind the transition indicators behind the link. 

Macroeconomic indicators

This set of indicators provides annual data on key areas of the economy for every EBRD country of operation. The cut-off date was early-October 2010. 

Macro economic indicators (892KB - XLS)

The file contains the following data series: 

• Output and expenditure (% change): GDP, private consumption, public consumption, gross fixed capital formation, exports of goods and services, imports of goods and services, industrial gross output, agricultural gross output
• Employment: Labour force, employment (both in % change), unemployment (% of labour force)
• Prices and wages (% change): Consumer prices, producer prices, gross average monthly earnings in economy 
• Government sector (% GDP): General government balance, general government expenditure, general government debt
• Monetary sector: Broad money (% change, % GDP), domestic credit (% change)
• Interest rates (% per annum): Refinance rate, interbank market rate, deposit rate, lending rate
• Exchange rates: end-year, annual average
• External sector: Current account, trade balance, merchandise exports, merchandise imports, net FDI, gross reserves, external debt stock (all in USD mn), gross reserves (in months of imports), debt service (in months of exports)
• Memorandum items: Population, GDP (LCU), GDP per capita (USD), share of industry in GDP (%), share of agriculture in GDP (%), current account (% GDP), reserves (USD m), external debt (% GDP, % exports)

Please also consider the sources and the methodology behind these indicators. 

Structural change indicators

These indicators provide a quantitative foundation for analysing progress in transition in the following five sectors: enterprises, markets and trade, the financial sector and infrastructure. In addition, the data file contains EBRD's transition indicators for these sectors. It covers data until September 2008.

Structural change indicators (524KB - XLS)

The file contains the following data series: 

Enterprises: Privatisation revenues (% GDP), private sector size (% GDP, % employment), budgetary subsidies and current transfers (% GDP), industry size (% employment), labour productivity in industry (% change), investment (% GDP) 

Markets and trade: Share of administered prices in CPI (%), number of goods with administered prices in EBRD-15 basket, share of trade with non-transition countries (%) , share of trade in GDP, tariff revenues (% imports)

Financial sector: Number of foreign-owned banks, asset share of state-owned banks (%), asset share of foreign-owned banks (%), non-performing loans (% total loans), domestic credit to private sector (% GDP), domestic credit to households (% GDP), mortgage lending (% GDP), stock market capitalisation (% GDP), stock trading volume (% market capitalisation), eurobond issuance (% GDP)

Infrastructure: Fixed-line (mobile) penetration rate (per 100 inhabitants), internet users (per 100 inhabitants), railway labour productivity (1989=100), residential electricity tariffs (USc kWh), average collection rate, electricity (%), GDP per unit of energy use (PPP in US dollars per kgoe)

EBRD transition indicators: small-scale privatisation, large-scale privatisation, enterprise reform, price liberalisation, forex and trade liberalisation, competition policy, banking sector, non-bank financial institutions, infrastructure (electric power, railways, roads, telecommunications, water and waste water)

Learn more about the methodology behind these data series.

Transition development snapshots

The structural change indicators can not give a complete account or precise measurement of progress in transition, given the inherent difficulties of measuring structural and institutional change. The transition developments snapshots try to compensate for these shortcomings by highlighting qualitative or institutional developments in a number of key economic areas. 

Transition development snapshots (39KB - XLS)

The file contains the following data series: 

Liberalisation and privatisation: Current account convertibility, controls on inward direct investment, interest rate liberalisation, exchange rate regime, wage regulation, tradability of land 

Business environment and competition: Competition office, quality of insolvency law, secured transactions law

Infrastructure: Telecoms regulatory assessment compliance, independence of electricity regulator, separation of railway infrastructure from operations, independence of the road directorate

Financial sector: Capital adequacy ratio, deposit insurance system, private pension funds

Social reform: Share of population living in poverty, government expenditure on health (% GDP), government expenditure on education (% GDP), household expenditure on power and water

More about the methodology behind these indicators. 

Last updated 18 May 2012