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Economic analyses and forecasts

The EBRD collects and disseminates a number of time series data for all countries of operations. These are published annually in the Transition Report and electronically twice a year.

Macroeconomic performance and forecast tables

Press release REP: Good growth prospects in emerging Europe, overshadowed by downside risks

The analysis and reasoning behind the forecasts is explained in the Regional Economic Prospects: Quarterly Update May 2011. (2MB - PDF)

Forecasts table
 

Macroeconomic performance and forecast tables

Country assessments

Central Europe and the Baltic states South-eastern Europe
Croatia (604KB - PDF)   Albania (596KB - PDF)  
Estonia (595KB - PDF)   Bosnia and Herzegovina (605KB - PDF)
Hungary (599KB - PDF)   Bulgaria (597KB - PDF)  
Latvia (600KB - PDF)   FYR Macedonia (594KB - PDF)  
Lithuania (601KB - PDF)   Montenegro (596KB - PDF)
Poland (603KB - PDF)   Romania (604KB - PDF)  
Slovak Republic (607KB - PDF)   Serbia (598KB - PDF)  
Slovenia (607KB - PDF)    
Eastern Europe and the Caucasus Central Asia
Armenia (596KB - PDF) Kazakhstan (605KB - PDF)
Azerbaijan (597KB - PDF) Kyrgyz Republic (604KB - PDF)
Belarus (613KB - PDF) Mongolia (596KB - PDF)
Georgia (598KB - PDF) Tajikistan (601KB - PDF)
Moldova (601KB - PDF) Turkmenistan (613KB - PDF)
Ukraine (611KB - PDF) Uzbekistan (606KB - PDF)
Turkey (614KB - PDF) Russia (611KB - PDF)

Methodological notes (106KB - PDF)

Selected economic indicators - macroeconomic

Selected economic indicators provide basic macroeconomic statistics in key areas of the economy: output, employment, prices and wages, government sector, monetary sector, interest and exchange rates and external sector. The cut-off date was early-October 2009.

Selected economic indicators (643KB - XLS)

Methodology

 

Structural change indicators

Structural change indicators provide a quantitative foundation for analysing progress in transition. The tables contain structural and institutional indicators in the areas of enterprises, markets and trade, financial sector and infrastructure. The data are based on a wide variety of sources, including national authorities, other international organisations and EBRD staff estimates. To strengthen the degree of cross-country comparability, some of the data were collected through standardised EBRD surveys of national authorities. File covers data until September 2008.

Structural change indicators (412KB - XLS)

Methodology

Transition indicators

The EBRD assesses progress in transition through a set of transition indicators. These have been used to track reform developments in all countries of operations since the beginning of transition. Progress is measured against the standards of industrialised market economies, while recognising that there is neither a “pure” market economy nor a unique end-point for transition.

The measurement scale for the indicators ranges from 1 to 4+, where 1 represents little or no change from a rigid centrally planned economy and 4+ represents the standards of an industrialised market economy. The reform scores reflect the assessments of EBRD country economists using the criteria described in the methodological notes.

Assessments are made in nine areas: Large scale privatisation, small scale privatisation, governance and enterprise restructuring, price liberalisation, trade and foreign exchange system, competition policy, banking reform and interest rate liberalisation, securities markets and non-bank financial institutions, and infrastructure.

We provide two sets of the same indicators, sorted by country and sector.

Transition indicators by country (1MB - XLS)

Transition indicators by sector (951KB - XLS)

Methodology

Progress in transition: qualitative and institutional developments

To help to describe progress in transition, the data provided in Structural change indicators can not give a complete account or precise measurement of progress in transition, given the inherent difficulties of measuring structural and institutional change. Transition developments snapshots highlight qualitative or institutional developments in the areas of liberalisation and privatisation, the business environment and competition, infrastructure, the financial sector and social reform, to try to compensate these shortcomings.

Transition development snapshots (39KB - XLS)

Methodology


Last updated 29 April 2010