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EU expansion is EU’s cheapest course: Amato

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Former Italian Prime Minister Giuliano Amato on the Balkans and EU integration.

Jacques de Larosiere lecture at the EBRD 2005 Annual Meeting.

It will be cheaper in the long run for the European Union to welcome Balkan states as members than to deal with the instability that will result if they are not made Union members, former Italian Prime Minister Giuliano Amato said in closing the EBRD’s 2005 Annual Meeting in Belgrade, Serbia.

In delivering the annual Jacques de Larosière lecture, the chairman of the International Commission on the Balkans delivered his prescription for averting a return to the western Balkan’s recent past of political instability, armed conflict and economic deterioration.

“Let me say that the region is much better off than 10 years ago when the Dayton Peace accords were signed,” between countries of ex-Yugoslavia. “The progress has been remarkable. In several parts – not everywhere – we’re back to normal. Countries are run by governments that respond to Parliament. Democratic regimes are taking root.”

He mentioned that during his tours of the Balkans as Commission chair, he had met some Bosnian students who were discussing the 1990s conflicts between Croatia, Bosnia and Serbia. “One wanted to argue about who started the war. After a while another one said, ‘Who cares?’ They know they cannot live forever animated by their past. History is one thing. Political struggles of today and tomorrow have to be something else.”

Cooling the past

He said that during those Balkan tours he had expected the economy would be the main focus of politicians, commentators and everyday people. On the contrary, he said, they still tend to focus on “status, interethnic relations…and cheering on or condemning the authors of crimes of the past.

“This means the past, with its passion and anti-integration sentiments, dominates the future. Opening the future requires that they cool the temperature of the past.”

Economic growth would help achieve this, and key to economic growth for this region is the prospect of joining the European Union. That prospect is closer to reality for some Balkan states than for others. He said bluntly that in 2006 the EU should establish the roadmap for accession for all those countries with real hopes of membership.

Once the EU delivers an accession roadmap to a candidate country, that state receives injections of EU funding, improvements in its reputation among foreign investors, and has to implement difficult but necessary reforms which, without EU membership clearly in sight, might be thwarted by negative public opinion.

“The countries that are quite a bit farther ahead in the accession process have per capita growth that is significantly higher than countries that are outside waiting,” said Dr Amato. Yet it is those accession-states-in-waiting that need the money most, and immediately, he argued, to encounter high levels of unemployment that promote unrest and conflict. He equated EU development funds with the post-World War II Marshall Plan that helped rebuild western Europe’s economies.

Courage required

Mr Amato dwelled at length on the upcoming referenda France and the Netherlands will hold on the new EU Constitution. A ‘No’ vote will be interpreted as a desire to put the brakes on further EU expansion. He said EU leaders needed “courage” to counter anti-expansion sentiment, as EU membership is the main hope for stability in the Balkans. “Weak economies foster instability which leads to radical political options that tend to fall into the past.”

Both Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo have been governed for many years by the international community, led by the European Union. Dr Amato said the time was ripe to stop what was developing into a ‘colonising’ presence. He expects the Office of the High Commissioner in Bosnia to be downgraded very soon to that of a high-powered EU ambassador. He also expects the thorny question of Kosovo’s status to be resolved by year-end.

Only the greater goal of joining the European Union is likely to bring stability to these countries, he said. “Our leaders in western Europe have to find the courage to speak to their electorate” in favour of enlargement, he said.

“We spend 25 per cent more money and have committed more troops to Kosovo than we have to Afghanistan. Do we want to do so only to transform ourselves into a colonial power? Or would it be better to devote these resources to the more acceptable goal of economic growth, democratic stability and new members of Europe?”

“This region has the potential to be a prosperous part of a prosperous Europe.”

Written by EBRD Senior Writer Kate Dunn.

26 May 2005